You’re sitting at a Jacks or Better machine. You’ve been dealt a hand that feels… tricky. Your gut tells you one thing, your experience another. What do you do? If you’re like most players, even seasoned ones, you rely on a mix of intuition and simplified rules of thumb. And that’s precisely why you might be leaving money on the table.
Here’s the hard truth about video poker: it’s not about feelings. It’s a game of pure mathematics. For every single one of the 134,459 unique hands you can be dealt, there is one, and only one, mathematically optimal way to play it. An algorithm doesn’t have gut feelings; it has Expected Value (EV), the cold, hard calculation of the average return for every possible decision.
Playing with perfect, algorithm-based strategy on a “full-pay” 9/6 Jacks or Better machine yields a theoretical return of 99.54%. Anything less is a donation to the casino.
This post is dedicated to the hands that trip us up – the ones where your intuition is your worst enemy. We’re going to break down 16 counterintuitive hands to help you stop thinking like a player and start thinking like a machine.
The Ground Rules: 9/6 Pay Table and Max Coins
Before we dive in, two things are non-negotiable.
- Find a 9/6 Machine: The strategies here are only for “full-pay” Jacks or Better, also known as 9/6. This simply means it pays 9 coins for a Full House and 6 for a Flush. An 8/5 machine drastically lowers your return and changes the strategy.
- Always Bet Max Coins: The massive 4000-coin payout for a Royal Flush is only available on a 5-coin bet. Playing fewer coins slashes the return and makes long-term winning impossible.
Now, let’s get to the hands that separate the pros from the amateurs.
A. Breaking “Pat” Hands and Disciplined Holds
Discarding a guaranteed winner feels wrong, but sometimes it’s the most profitable move you can make. Other times, the discipline to not chase a flashy draw is what separates the pros from the pack.
Case 1: Pat Flush vs. 4-to-a-Royal Flush
- Hand: K♥ Q♥ J♥ 10♥ 2♥
- The Gut Play: Hold all five cards! It’s a pat Flush, a guaranteed 6-for-1 payout.
- The Math Play: Hold the K♥ Q♥ J♥ 10♥ and discard the lowly 2♥.
- The Breakdown: This is the classic example of chasing the jackpot. While you sacrifice a guaranteed 30-coin win (on a 5-coin bet), the long-term Expected Value of drawing to the Royal Flush is nearly three times higher. You won’t hit it often, but the massive 4000-coin payout when you do makes this the only correct play.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 2: High Pair vs. 3-to-a-Royal Flush (The Discipline Test)
- Hand: J♠ J♥ Q♠ K♠ 5♣
- The Alluring Draw: You have a paying high pair of Jacks, but also three cards to a Royal Flush (J♠ Q♠ K♠). The temptation to chase the massive Royal payout is strong.
- The Math Play: Hold the J♠ J♥.
- The Breakdown: This is a critical discipline test. While chasing Royals is often correct, it’s not when you’re holding a high pair. The guaranteed payout of the high pair, combined with its excellent chances of improving to Two Pair, Three of a Kind, or a Full House, gives it a higher EV than the three-card Royal draw. This is a key difference between holding a high pair and a low pair against the same draw.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
B. The Low Pair Dilemma
A low pair (2s through 10s) isn’t a winner on its own, but it has potential. The question is, how much potential compared to other draws?
Case 3: Low Pair vs. 4-to-a-Flush
- Hand: 4♠ 4♥ 7♠ 9♠ Q♠
- The Gut Play: Hold the 4♠ 4♥. A pair feels more solid than a draw.
- The Math Play: Hold the 4♠ 7♠ 9♠ Q♠.
- The Breakdown: While you’ll only complete the flush about 1 in 5 times, the 6-for-1 payout makes it a more valuable long-term play than holding the low pair. The low pair needs to improve to at least three-of-a-kind to pay, and the math favors the flush draw.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 4: Low Pair vs. 3-to-a-Royal Flush
- Hand: 8♣ 8♦ J♥ Q♥ K♥
- The Gut Play: Hold the 8♣ 8♦. It’s a pair!
- The Math Play: Hold the J♥ Q♥ K♥.
- The Breakdown: This isn’t even close. The long-term value of a three-card Royal Flush draw (especially with three high cards) is nearly double the value of holding a low pair. Always choose the Royal draw.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 5: Low Pair vs. 4-to-an-Outside-Straight
- Hand: 6♣ 6♦ 7♥ 8♠ 9♣
- The Gut Play: Hold the 7♥ 8♠ 9♣ and one of the 6s for the open-ended straight draw. It has 8 outs!
- The Math Play: Hold the 6♣ 6♦.
- The Breakdown: This surprises many players. Even though the straight draw has many outs, the payout for a straight is relatively low (4-for-1). The low pair has fewer ways to improve, but the payouts for Three of a Kind, a Full House, or Four of a Kind are so much higher that its EV is greater.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
C. High Pair vs. Everything Else
Now it gets even tougher. You have a guaranteed paying hand. Do you keep it?
Case 6: High Pair vs. 4-to-a-Straight-Flush
- Hand: J♦ 8♦ 9♦ 10♦ J♠
- The Gut Play: Hold the J♦ J♠. It’s a high pair, a guaranteed win.
- The Math Play: Hold the 8♦ 9♦ 10♦ J♦.
- The Breakdown: The open-ended straight flush draw is one of the most powerful hands in the game. You have outs to a Straight Flush (50-for-1), a Flush (6-for-1), and a Straight (4-for-1). The combined EV of this monster draw is more than double the value of keeping the high pair.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 7: High Pair vs. 4-to-a-Flush
- Hand: K♠ K♥ 2♥ 7♥ 9♥
- The Gut Play: Hold the K♥ 2♥ 7♥ 9♥ for the flush draw, just like we did with the low pair.
- The Math Play: Hold the K♠ K♥.
- The Breakdown: This is a perfect example of why simple rules fail. Unlike a low pair, a high pair is already a winner and has excellent chances to improve to Two Pair, Three of a Kind, etc. Its EV is significantly higher than a simple four-card flush draw. The rank of the pair matters!
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
D. Not All Draws Are Created Equal (Common Traps)
The subtle differences between draws can make or break your session. Here are some common traps where intuition leads you astray.
Case 8: The Overvalued Straight Flush Draw
- Hand: 7♣ 8♣ 9♣ 4♠ 4♥
- The Tricky Draw: A three-card open-ended straight flush draw (7♣ 8♣ 9♣) looks promising. It has multiple ways to hit a big hand. Many players would discard the pair to chase it.
- The Math Play: Hold the 4♠ 4♥.
- The Breakdown: This is a classic trap. The draw looks appealing, but its Expected Value is actually lower than the low pair’s. A low pair has a better chance of improving to high-paying hands like a Full House or Four of a Kind, making it the superior long-term play. The draw feels more “active,” but the pair is more profitable.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 9: The Inside Straight “High Card” Trap
- Hand: 10♠ 10♥ J♣ Q♦ A♠
- The Tempting Draw: A four-card inside straight draw with three high cards (10♥ J♣ Q♦ A♠) seems powerful. You have outs to a straight and can pair any of the high cards.
- The Math Play: Hold the 10♠ 10♥.
- The Breakdown: Another trap for the unwary player. Despite the multiple high cards, the math shows that holding the low pair is the better play. Strategy charts confirm that a low pair is a more valuable starting point than a gutshot straight draw, even one loaded with high cards.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
E. Subtle Plays That Add Up
These are the expert-level plays that squeeze every last hundredth of a percent out of the machine.
Case 10: The “Penalty Card” Effect
- Hand A: A♣ K♣ Q♣ 9♠ 8♥
- Hand B: A♣ K♣ Q♣ J♠ 8♥
- The Play: In both hands, the correct play is to hold the A♣ K♣ Q♣.
- The Breakdown: The play is the same, but the value is different. In Hand B, the J♠ is a “penalty card.” Because it’s in your hand, it can’t be drawn from the deck. This slightly reduces your chances of making a straight (A-K-Q-J-10) or pairing a Jack compared to Hand A, where all four Jacks are still in the deck. An algorithm accounts for this tiny difference automatically.
- Analyze Hand A: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
- Analyze Hand B: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 11: Suited 10-J vs. a Lone King
- Hand: K♠ J♥ 10♥ 4♣ 7♦
- The Gut Play: Hold the K♠. It’s the highest card.
- The Math Play: Hold the J♥ 10♥.
- The Breakdown: The suited 10 and Jack are more powerful than they look. They hold potential for a Royal Flush, a Straight Flush, a Flush, a Straight, and a High Pair. This combination of possibilities gives them a higher EV than holding a single King.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 12: Never Hold a Kicker
- Hand: J♠ J♥ K♠ 7♣ 2♦
- The Gut Play: Hold the J♠ J♥ K♠. The King is a good card, maybe it will help.
- The Math Play: Hold only the J♠ J♥.
- The Breakdown: This is one of the most common beginner mistakes. The kicker adds zero value to your hand and takes up a spot that could be used by a card that improves your pair to Three of a Kind or a Full House. Always discard the kicker.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 13: Pat Straight vs. 3-to-a-Royal
- Hand: 10♠ J♣ Q♦ K♦ A♦
- The Gut Play: Hold the three-card Royal draw (Q♦ K♦ A♦). Chasing Royals is good, right?
- The Math Play: Hold the pat Straight.
- The Breakdown: This is a check to make sure you’re paying attention. While chasing Royals is often correct, it’s not always correct. Here, the guaranteed 20-coin payout for the Straight has a much higher EV than the very longshot 3-card Royal draw. The algorithm always does the math, it doesn’t just follow a simple rule.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Case 14: 3-to-a-Straight-Flush (2 Gaps, 2 High Cards) vs. Low Pair
- Hand: 5♠ 5♣ 10♠ Q♠ K♠
- The Gut Play: Hold the low pair of fives. The straight flush draw has two gaps (missing the Jack and 9).
- The Math Play: Hold the 10♠ Q♠ K♠.
- The Breakdown: This isn’t just a gapped straight flush draw; it’s also a three-card Royal Flush draw! That Royal potential skyrockets its value, making it a much better hold than the low pair. Always identify the highest-ranking potential in your hand.
- Analyze This Hand Yourself: Bits & Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer
Your Turn to Think Like a Machine
Mastering Jacks or Better isn’t about memorizing a few rules; it’s about reprogramming your brain to ignore flawed intuition and trust the math. Every hand we’ve covered highlights a situation where the easy or “obvious” play is the wrong one.
The only way to achieve that 99.54% return is to make the play with the highest Expected Value, every single time. Start analyzing your own tricky hands with our hand analyzer. The more you test your intuition against the numbers, the faster you’ll learn to make the plays that truly pay off.