Bits & Odds

$500,000 MATCH TO WIN — $5 New York Scratch-Off #1658

Data captured · launched June 3, 2025

$500,000 MATCH TO WIN (#1658) is a $5 New York scratch-off launched on June 3, 2025. As of October 25, 2026 it ranks #6 of 109 active games on current payout (80.0%, $4.00 expected back per ticket) and #3 of 29 $5 games, #7 on any-prize odds (1 in 2.81) and #91 on top-prize odds (—). Since launch the payout has risen 14.9 points (65.0% at launch) and your chance of winning something has risen 48.2% (1 in 4.16 at launch). 0 of 3 top prizes of $500,000 remain, and we estimate 228,435 tickets are still unsold (96.2% sold). Its current figures fail our plausibility check (the caution below), so whatever its place in the list, we do not count it among the best New York scratch-offs to buy. A caution on the current figures: the any-prize odds have moved from 1 in 4.16 to 1 in 2.81, further than a game's odds really move. Its prize tiers disagree about how many tickets are left (between 0.23 million and 0.37 million), usually because small prizes are claimed late, and the current odds and payout lean on that disagreement. The printed odds are the safer guide, and our summaries do not name this game the best of anything (how we estimate).

Current payout
80.0%
65.0% at launch
Expected value
$4.00
per $5 ticket
Any-prize odds
1 in 2.81
1 in 4.16 at launch
Cash odds
1 in 2.81
excludes free tickets
Profit odds
1 in 5.18
win more than $5
$600+ odds
—
claim-at-lottery prizes
Top prizes left
0 of 3
$500,000 each
Tickets remaining
3.8%
≈ 228,435 tickets

Prizes remaining

Every prize level in $500,000 MATCH TO WIN, with the odds printed at launch, the odds today given what is left, and how much of each tier is still unclaimed. To set its odds of $1,000 or more (or any other prize size) against every other New York game, see odds by prize size. Across all tiers, 81,345 of 1,435,606 prizes (5.7%) are still out there.

PrizeOdds at launchOdds now TotalClaimedRemaining% left
$500,000 1 in 1,992,033 all claimed 3 3 0 0.0%
$2,000 1 in 597,610 all claimed 10 10 0 0.0%
$500 1 in 9,670 1 in 8,461 618 591 27 4.4%
$200 1 in 1,709 1 in 1,718 3,496 3,363 133 3.8%
$100 1 in 328.9 1 in 281.3 18,169 17,357 812 4.5%
$50 1 in 80.0 1 in 70.8 74,709 71,483 3,226 4.3%
$20 1 in 124.9 1 in 101.1 47,836 45,577 2,259 4.7%
$15 1 in 62.5 1 in 50.0 95,644 91,077 4,567 4.8%
$10 1 in 10.0 1 in 6.91 597,539 564,458 33,081 5.5%
$5 1 in 10.0 1 in 6.13 597,582 560,342 37,240 6.2%
All prizes1 in 4.161 in 2.81 1,435,6061,354,261 81,3455.7%

How $500,000 MATCH TO WIN has moved

61% 72% 82% Jun 2025Aug 2025Oct 2026
Current payout (solid) and any-prize odds (dashed, inverted so up is better) since we began tracking $500,000 MATCH TO WIN. 121 daily readings.

Recent claims of $1,000 and up

Derived from day-to-day changes in the official remaining-prize counts, so the date is when the lottery published the change.

$500,000 MATCH TO WIN: common questions

How many $500,000 prizes are left in $500,000 MATCH TO WIN?
0 of 3 as of October 25, 2026. The top prize is gone; anything you win will be a lower tier.
What are the odds of winning anything on $500,000 MATCH TO WIN?
1 in 2.81 as of October 25, 2026, compared with 1 in 4.16 printed at launch. Cash-only odds are 1 in 2.81, and the odds of winning more than the $5 ticket price are 1 in 5.18.
Is $500,000 MATCH TO WIN worth buying?
Its current payout is 80.0% ($4.00 back per $5 ticket), rank #6 of 109 in New York. That figure fails our plausibility check (see the caution above), so read it as approximate and not as a reason to buy. The best $5 alternative as of October 25, 2026 is NEW YORK MILLIONAIRE (#1651, $5) at 90.0%. No scratcher has a positive expected value; this is about losing less over time.
How many $500,000 MATCH TO WIN tickets are left?
We estimate 228,435 of roughly 5,975,820 printed tickets are unsold (96.2% sold), derived from the prizes claimed at each tier and their published odds.
When did $500,000 MATCH TO WIN launch and is it still on sale?
It launched on June 3, 2025. It is still on sale.

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