Baccarat Odds, Payouts & House Edge Table
Every figure below is computed by enumerating all 4,998,398,275,503,360 ordered six-card deals of an 8-deck shoe. Compare standard 5% commission baccarat against commission-free EZ Baccarat, then test any bet live in our Free Baccarat Game.
Every Baccarat Bet Ranked by House Edge (8-Deck Shoe)
| Bet Name | Table Variant | Payout | Win Prob. | Push Prob. | Loss Prob. | House Edge (per bet) | Edge (per decision) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (EZ Baccarat) | EZ Baccarat (No Comm.) | 1 to 1 (3-card 7 pushes) | 43.6064% | 11.7690% | 44.6247% | 1.02% (1.0183%) | 1.15% |
| Banker (Standard) | Standard (5% Comm.) | 0.95 to 1 (19 to 20) | 45.8597% | 9.5156% | 44.6247% | 1.06% (1.0579%) | 1.17% |
| Player | Both | 1 to 1 | 44.6247% | 9.5156% | 45.8597% | 1.24% (1.2351%) | 1.36% |
| Tie (9 to 1 pay table) | Both | 9 to 1 | 9.5156% | 0.0000% | 90.4844% | 4.84% (4.8440%) | 4.84% |
| Dragon 7 Side Bet | EZ Baccarat (No Comm.) | 40 to 1 | 2.2534% | 0.0000% | 97.7466% | 7.61% (7.6113%) | 7.61% |
| Panda 8 Side Bet | EZ Baccarat (No Comm.) | 25 to 1 | 3.4543% | 0.0000% | 96.5457% | 10.19% (10.1876%) | 10.19% |
| Player Pair / Banker Pair | Both | 11 to 1 | 7.4699% | 0.0000% | 92.5301% | 10.36% (10.3614%) | 10.36% |
| Tie (8 to 1 standard pay table) | Both | 8 to 1 | 9.5156% | 0.0000% | 90.4844% | 14.36% (14.3596%) | 14.36% |
Exact 8-Deck Combinatorial Counts
A baccarat round draws at most six cards from the 416-card shoe. Evaluating every path through the third-card tableau over all 4,998,398,275,503,360 equally likely six-card sequences produces these exact counts:
| Outcome | Exact 6-Card Permutations | Probability | 1 in N Hands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker Wins (all) | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 45.8597% | 1 in 2.18 |
| Player Wins (all) | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 44.6247% | 1 in 2.24 |
| Tie | 475,627,426,473,216 | 9.5156% | 1 in 10.51 |
| Dragon 7 (Banker 3-card 7 win) | 112,633,011,329,024 | 2.2534% | 1 in 44.38 |
| Panda 8 (Player 3-card 8 win) | 172,660,763,262,976 | 3.4543% | 1 in 28.95 |
| Natural 8 or 9 (decided in 4 cards) | 1,714,696,016,515,584 | 34.3049% | 1 in 2.92 |
Final Hand Total Distribution (0 to 9)
Because Banker's third-card rules target Player's third card on totals of 3 through 6, Banker finishes on 7, 8, or 9 slightly more often than Player (38.49% vs. 40.06%):
| Final Total | Player Probability | Banker Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.40% | 8.88% |
| 1 | 7.45% | 6.93% |
| 2 | 7.43% | 6.91% |
| 3 | 7.45% | 7.28% |
| 4 | 7.43% | 9.34% |
| 5 | 7.45% | 10.07% |
| 6 | 13.32% | 12.11% |
| 7 | 13.37% | 12.84% |
| 8 | 13.32% | 12.80% |
| 9 | 13.37% | 12.84% |
How Shoe Size Affects the House Edge (1, 6, and 8 Decks)
Fewer decks slightly lower the Banker edge and substantially reduce the Tie and Pair probabilities:
| Shoe Size | Banker Edge (5% Comm.) | EZ Banker Edge | Player Edge | Tie (8:1) Edge | Dragon 7 Edge | Panda 8 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deck (52 cards) | 1.01% | 0.97% | 1.29% | 15.75% | 7.58% | 10.61% |
| 6 Decks (312 cards) | 1.06% | 1.02% | 1.24% | 14.44% | 7.61% | 10.21% |
| 8 Decks (416 cards) | 1.06% | 1.02% | 1.24% | 14.36% | 7.61% | 10.19% |
Sources & further reading
- Where the 5% Commission Comes From, and What EZ Baccarat Changes
- Why the Scorecard Can't Tell You What Comes Next
- Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling (Chapter 19: Baccarat, pp. 597–634). Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-78783-9
- Thorp, E. O., & Walden, W. E. (1966). A favorable side bet in Nevada baccarat. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61(314), 313–328. doi:10.1080/01621459.1966.10480867
- Shackleford, M. Baccarat & EZ Baccarat. Wizard of Odds. wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/ · wizardofodds.com/games/ez-baccarat/
Frequently asked questions
- Why does Banker have a lower house edge than Player?
- Player acts first on totals 0–5, while Banker acts second and uses the value of Player's third card before drawing on 3–6. That informational edge lets Banker win 45.86% of hands vs 44.62% for Player. Even after the 5% commission on Banker wins, Banker costs 1.06% per bet compared with 1.24% on Player.
- How does EZ Baccarat lower the Banker house edge to 1.02%?
- EZ Baccarat removes the 5% commission on winning Banker hands and instead makes a winning three-card Banker total of 7 a push. Because a winning Banker three-card 7 happens on 2.25% of hands (less than 5% of Banker's 45.86% win rate), the Banker house edge drops from 1.06% to 1.02%.
- What are the exact odds and house edge of Dragon 7 and Panda 8?
- In an 8-deck shoe, Dragon 7 (Banker wins with a three-card 7, paying 40 to 1) hits on 2.25% of hands (1 in 44.38) for a 7.61% house edge. Panda 8 (Player wins with a three-card 8, paying 25 to 1) hits on 3.45% of hands (1 in 28.95) for a 10.19% house edge.
- How much does an 8:1 vs 9:1 Tie payout change the house edge?
- A tie occurs on 9.52% of 8-deck hands. At the standard 8-to-1 payout, the Tie bet carries a 14.36% house edge; on tables paying 9 to 1, the edge drops to 4.84%.
- What is the house edge on Player Pair and Banker Pair?
- With 8 decks (416 cards), the second card dealt to a side matches the rank of the first card with probability 31/415 (7.47%). At an 11-to-1 payout, both Player Pair and Banker Pair carry a 10.36% house edge.