Baccarat Simulator: Scorecard & Streak Systems Over 10,000 Shoes
Test the scorecard and progression systems players actually use at the baccarat table—Follow the Shoe, Bet Against Last Result, Martingale on Banker, and 1-3-2-6—side by side against Flat Betting on Banker across 10,000 simulated 8-deck shoes. No signup, no download.
Across 10,000 simulated 8-deck shoes (70 hands per shoe), every system converges to the exact house edge of the bets it places.
| Scorecard / Progression System | Avg Action / Shoe | Avg Net / Shoe | Realized Loss % | Theoretical Edge | Bust Rate | Winning Shoes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat Bet on Banker (Baseline) | $700 | −$5.73 | 0.82% | 1.06% | 0.0% | 47.3% |
| Follow the Shoe (Bet Last Winner) | $700 | −$7.04 | 1.01% | 1.15% | 0.0% | 46.8% |
| Bet Against the Streak (Chop) | $700 | −$9.05 | 1.29% | 1.15% | 0.0% | 47.3% |
| Martingale on Banker (Double After Loss) | $2,047 | −$10.42 | 0.51% | 1.06% | 18.4% | 75.4% |
| 1-3-2-6 Positive Progression on Banker | $1,401 | −$11.25 | 0.80% | 1.06% | 0.0% | 45.3% |
Sample Single-Shoe Bankroll Trajectories (Hand 0 to Hand 70)
How Each Scorecard System Works—and Why the Road Changes Nothing
By Doob's Optional Stopping Theorem (Ethier, 2010), no betting progression or scorecard rule can alter the expected value per dollar wagered on negative-expectation trials:
- Flat Bet on Banker (Baseline): Wager 1 base unit on Banker every hand for the entire shoe.
- Follow the Shoe (Bet Last Winner): Start on Banker, then bet whichever side (Banker or Player) won the last non-tie decision.
- Bet Against the Streak (Chop): Start on Banker, then bet the opposite side of whichever hand won the last non-tie decision.
- Martingale on Banker (Double After Loss): Double the Banker bet after every loss (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…) until a win or the table limit / bankroll cap.
- 1-3-2-6 Positive Progression on Banker: Bet 1, 3, 2, and 6 units across a four-win Banker streak; reset to 1 unit after any loss or fourth win.
Notice what happens when you switch from Flat Banker to Follow the Shoe or Bet Against the Streak: because both road systems spend roughly 49.3% of their hands betting on Player (1.24% house edge) instead of staying on Banker (1.06% house edge), your average loss per shoe actually increases.
Sources & further reading
- Why the Scorecard Can't Tell You What Comes Next
- Where the 5% Commission Comes From, and What EZ Baccarat Changes
- Croson, R., & Sundali, J. (2005). The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: Empirical data from casinos. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30(3), 195–209. doi:10.1007/s11166-005-1153-2
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), 105–110. doi:10.1037/h0031322
- Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling (Chapter 8: Betting Systems, pp. 275–316; Chapter 19: Baccarat, pp. 597–634). Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-78783-9
Frequently asked questions
- Does following the Big Road or Bead Plate improve your baccarat odds?
- No. Across 10,000 simulated shoes, both "Follow the Shoe" (betting the last winner) and "Bet Against the Streak" (betting the opposite of the last winner) lose 1.15% per resolved decision—worse than flat betting Banker (1.06% per hand), because switching to Player half the time mixes in Player's higher 1.24% house edge.
- Why does Martingale on Banker still lose in the long run?
- Doubling your Banker bet after every loss ($10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640) hits the ceiling of a $1,000 bankroll or table limit after 6 consecutive losses. Whenever a 6-loss run happens, the single bust wipes out dozens of small winning shoes, leaving your average loss equal to 1.06% of total action.
- What does the 1-3-2-6 system do in baccarat?
- The 1-3-2-6 positive progression presses your Banker bet across four consecutive wins and drops back to 1 unit after any loss. It protects your bankroll from Martingale-style ruin and raises your average bet size, but every dollar wagered still faces the exact 1.06% standard Banker edge (1.02% in EZ Baccarat).
- Why do casinos hand out free scorecards and display electronic roadmaps?
- Roadmaps keep players engaged and encourage them to bet both sides of the layout or press bets during streaks, increasing total action per shoe without changing the house edge.
- Is flat betting Banker or EZ Banker the lowest-cost way to play?
- Yes. Flat betting 1 base unit on Banker every hand keeps your total action predictable and locks in the lowest house edge on the layout: 1.06% with 5% commission or 1.02% in EZ Baccarat.